China Economic Quarterly Q2 2019

Amidst the global economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions, the 6.2% GDP growth rate in Q2 meets market expectations. 

This issue provides an overview of the macroeconomic trends in Q2 2019, some policy updates and hot topic analysis.

Highlights

Here are some highlights of the macro economic and policy updates: 

  • GDP growth increased by 6.2% in Q2 (IMF expects global economy slow down to 3.2% in 2019) 
  • Total fixed asset investment reached 29.91 trillion yuan, expanding by 5.8% in 1H 
  • Total real estate investment increased by 10.9%, reached 6.16 trillion yuan in 1H 
  • PMI dropped below the threshold of 50% 
  • Total profit for all industrial companies over certain scales declined by 2.4% in 1H 
  • Total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 8.4% in 1H 
  • Imports and exports increasing by 3.9% in 1H 
  • PPI went up by 0.3% and CPI increased by 2.2% in 1H

Policy updates & hot topic analysis

Aggregate financing continued to grow in the first half year. 

According to data from the People’s Bank of China, in the first half year, aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) was 13.23 trillion yuan or 3.18 more than the same period of last year. AFRE went up by 10.9% year-on-year in the first six months. By the end of June, total AFRE reached 213.26 trillion yuan year-on-year (AFRE was 8.18 trillion, and went up 2.34 trillion yuan year-on-year in Q1). 
 

Fiscal spending went up by 10.7% in the first half year, or 3.9% more than in 2018

Despite the fact that the general public budget revenue increased by only 3.4% in the first half year (as a result of the policy measures of cutting taxes and fees), China continued to expand fiscal spending to 12.35 trillion yuan (5.86 trillion yuan), which went up by 10.7%. More specifically, it includes 1.69 and 10.66 trillion yuan (0.69 trillion and 5.17 trillion in Q1) for central and local general public budget expenditure respectively. 
 

What has China achieved in economic development in the last seven decades? 

The National Bureau of Statistics of China recently released a series of reports as part of the 70th anniversary celebration for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The reports summarised the significant achievements of the country’s economic development in the past 70 years. In the report, there is an analysis of the highlights which matter for business operation. 

Contact us

Thomas Leung

Mainland China and Hong Kong Markets Leader, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (10) 6533 2838 / +[852] 2289 8288

Elton Huang

China Central Markets Leader and China and Hong Kong Entrepreneurial and Private Business Co-Leader, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (21) 2323 3029

Elton Yeung

Strategy and Innovation Leader, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (10) 6533 8008

G. Bin Zhao

Senior Economist, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (21) 2323 3681

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