China Economic Quarterly Q3 2019

As a result of global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, GDP growth rate in Q3 fell to 6.0%.

This issue provides an overview of the macroeconomic trends in Q3 2019, some policy updates and hot topic analysis.

Highlights

Here are some highlights of the macro economic and policy updates: 

  • GDP growth increased by 6.0% in Q3 (IMF expects global economy to slow down to 3.0% in 2019)
  • Total fixed asset investment reached 46.14 trillion yuan, expanding by 5.4% in Q3
  • Total real estate investment increased by 10.5%
  • PMI remained below the threshold of 50%
  • The growth of industrial added values rose by 5.6%
  • Total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 8.2%
  • Imports and exports increased by 2.8% 
  • PPI went up by 0.3% and CPI increased by 2.5%

Policy updates & hot topic analysis

Aggregate financing continued to grow in double-digits. 

According to data from the People’s Bank of China, in the first nine months, aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) was 18.74 trillion yuan or 3.28 trillion more than the same period last year, while in Q2 AFRE was 13.23 trillion yuan. 

 

Fiscal spending went up by 9.4% in Q3, although the general public budget revenue increased by 3.3%.

In the first nine months, the general public budget revenue increased by only 3.3% to 15.07 trillion yuan (3.4% in Q2). This is similar to Q2 and was caused by the policy measures of cutting taxes and fees. 

 

China has made dramatic improvements in the business climate. 

Following the significant improvement in the business climate ranking last year, rising from 78th to 46th, China has made great progress again. 

According to the recently released annual report by the World Bank titled Doing Business 2020, with an enhanced score of 77.9 out of 100, China now ranks 31st globally in terms of the ease of doing business after implementing eight business reforms during the year. The country is also one of the world’s top ten most improved economies for the second year. 

 

Hot topic analysis: Will China face slower growth in 2020 and beyond?

As a result of global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, China’s GDP growth rate reduced to 6% in the third quarter of this year, which is the lowest rate in 27 years or since 1992. Market is worried that the world’s second largest economy might continue to decelerate, particularly as China has contributed more than 30% to global growth in recent years. So, will China face slower growth in 2020 and beyond? If so, how should the country deal with this? 

Contact us

Thomas Leung

Mainland China and Hong Kong Managing Partner - Markets, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (10) 6533 2838 / +[852] 2289 8288

Elton Huang

China Central Markets Leader, Shanghai Office Leader Partner, Entrepreneurial and Private Business Co-Leader, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (21) 2323 3029

Elton Yeung

Vice Chairman, Strategy and Innovation Leader, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (10) 6533 8008

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