China Economic Quarterly Q2 2024

China's uneven economic recovery: New growth drivers emerge

Our latest report provides an in-depth analysis of China’s economic momentum in the first half of the year, along with a forward-looking outlook for the second half. We explore how new quality productive forces are shaping China’s economic strategy to address structural challenges and unlock long-term growth opportunities.

china economic quarterly q2 2024

Highlights

china economic quarterly q2 2024

China’s economic momentum: Key takeaways from Q2 data and second-half outlook

In the second quarter, China’s GDP grew by 4.7% year-over-year, down from 5.3% in the first quarter, resulting in a 5% growth for the first half of the year. This aligns with the annual target.

  • Uneven recovery: Robust factory activity and exports drove growth, but a property downturn and weak consumer spending weighed it down.
  • High-tech sector growth: The high-tech sector continued to outpace the overall economy, highlighting China’s focus on high-quality development.
  • Policy support: Policymakers have reaffirmed the 5% growth target, signalling increased government support and fiscal stimulus amid escalating trade tensions.
  • Anticipated measures: Expected measures include expanded trade-in programmes and efforts to stabilise the property sector.

Topic in focus: New quality productive forces

New quality productive forces have emerged as a central theme. These forces drive policies for sustainable growth through technology, innovation, and green development while addressing structural challenges. This strategic approach emphasises five pillars:

  1. Technological innovation: Technological innovation serves as the cornerstone of China’s strategic pivot. The country ramps up research and development to achieve scientific breakthroughs.
  2. Emerging and future industries: Cutting-edge technologies foster emerging and future industries, such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology.
  3. Upgrading traditional industries: Upgrading traditional industries through digitalisation and green transformation remains a key driver of productivity gains.
  4. Institutional reforms: Institutional reforms enhance resource allocation. This aligns with the ‘two unswervingly’ principle for coordinated development of state-owned and private sectors.
  5. Opening-up: China’s opening-up leverages foreign direct investment to foster knowledge spillovers and outward direct investment to elevate its position in the global value chain.

Contact us

Geoffrey Wang

Chief Markets Officer, PwC China

Tel: +[86] (10) 6533 2928

Jackie Yan

Economist, PwC China

Tel: +[852] 2289 5460

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